区块链大型巡回播放【第49期】#比特币的不足# &“行情解读”

1、比特币的不足

比特币的发行需要成本消耗，具体体现在矿机、电力等固有成本等。依照比特币特有的发行收敛曲线来说，比特币模拟的是黄金曲线，地球上黄金的总量也是有限的，开采也需要成本，好在比特币可以跨地域短时间内转移，可以高次幂分割，保存容易等，这些优点可以胜过黄金这种价值存储商品。

比特币具备着黄金作为货币的种种属性，同样也有些不可避免的缺点：

1、价格波动剧烈：比特币目前作为一种投机投资的商品，一般不会被作为货币，价格大起大落很是常见，这种大幅度的价格变化，如果强行作为一种货币，显然很多人接受不了。

2、市场的供需：当经济高速发展的时候，财富也要快速的增长，显然比特币目前的发行规则不切合实际，如果以比特币标价，由于产量的减少，那么标定价格反而变低，物价会呈现越来越低的趋势，如果可以维持不变，各方可能会乐见其成，所以大家对价格数字的直觉可能很难接受这种变化。

总之，比特币作为一种长期的新兴事物，我们看到它的不足的同时，也需要包容它，因为区块链技术的应用首次完美表现在比特币上，相信更多的人会接受比特币，接受区块链技术的应用。

存在潜移默化赋予了比特币的某种实实在在的价值。回顾比特币的历史价格，每当触底时候，矿力成本作为间接依托，总会让比特币价格反弹，显然无需成本，发行货币可能是个不利于长远发展。

The issue of Bitcoin requires the consumption of costs, which are embodied in the inherent costs of mining machines, electricity, and so on. According to the unique issuance convergence curve of Bitcoin, bitcoin simulates a golden curve. The total amount of gold on earth is also limited. Mining also requires costs. Fortunately, bitcoin can be transferred across regions in a short period of time, and can be divided by higher powers, such advantages as ease of preservation can trump the value of gold as a store of goods. Bitcoin has all the attributes of gold as a currency, but it also has some unavoidable drawbacks:

1. The price is volatile: Bitcoin is currently a speculative investment commodity, and generally not a currency, price swings are common, and such large price changes, if imposed as a currency, are clearly unacceptable to many people.

2. Supply and demand in the market: When the economy is booming and wealth is growing rapidly, it is clear that the current rules of bitcoin issuance are unrealistic. If bitcoin is priced as a currency, the price will be lower because of the decrease in output, prices will tend to be lower and lower, and if they can be maintained, they may be welcomed by all parties, so it may be difficult for people's intuition of the price figures to accept such changes. In short, as a long-term emerging thing, while we see its shortcomings, we also need to embrace it, because the application of blockchain technology is perfect for the first time on Bitcoin, and I believe that more people will accept bitcoin, accept the application of blockchain technology. Existence has subtly given bitcoin a certain kind of tangible value. If you look at the historical price of Bitcoin, when it hits bottom, mining costs, as an indirect support, will always rebound the price of Bitcoin. Obviously, there is no cost.

2、行情解读

每日行情走势，大饼从3月12号开始爬升，初始点为3800点，今日09月14号19点03分10402美元左右，变盘已经到来，正在10500美元的测试，目前处于回调阶段。从日曲线看9600-10400之间目前支撑点很多，庄家买入挂单持仓1.2万BTC（买盘很多），上方阻力0.9万BTC（阻力有的）。

持续6个月的走势，接下来到了变盘的时刻，再次测试10500高位压力点，冲破之后，大饼整体趋势略微上涨。

从15分钟曲线可以看出，比特币从10212美元爬升到10401美元一个相对高点，合约不玩牛市必来，继续震荡起来目前回调处于10401点，相对指标USDT目前6.88，至于后市是否持续开启上涨趋势，看庄家心情。

3、小结

行情变化耐人寻味，无论是谁也不知道庄家下一步要做什么？作为玩家，你可以凭着自己的运气和实力，去预先判断接下来的走势，举个小例子比如波卡

我知道九月波卡的价格不可能大幅度拉升，因为官方正在解锁，但是你不知道官方什么时候进行抛货，或许他们憋着等到10月份也未可知，所以一切都是在博弈。

以上内容仅供参考，不提供投资、时间定投导向。

—-

编译者/作者：醉玲珑

玩币族申明：玩币族作为开放的资讯翻译/分享平台，所提供的所有资讯仅代表作者个人观点，与玩币族平台立场无关，且不构成任何投资理财建议。文章版权归原作者所有。