书写中国：卡普伦《细谈比特币》(中英对译)

　　Writing China: 'Chomping at the Bitcoin,' Zennon Kapron

　　书写中国:卡普伦《细谈比特币》

　　Bitcoin, the virtual currency that has attracted attention all over the world, has had a tough battle in China.

　　引发了全世界关注的虚拟货币--比特币，在中国的日子并不好过。

　　Last May, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV aired a documentary on bitcoin, which drew attention to the software-based payment system, as well as the Chinese speculators who looked to make some quick money off changes in the currency. The documentary marked the first time bitcoin came to the attention of the larger Chinese public.

　　去年5月份中国国家电视台中央电视台(CCTV)播放了一部有关比特币的纪录片，引发了人们对这个基于软件的支付系统的关注，其中也包括那些希望从比特币的变化中赚一些快钱的中国投机者们。这部纪录片标志着比特币第一次进入了中国大众的视野。

　　This April, China's central bank ordered commercial banks and payment companies to close their bitcoin accounts, saying the system threatened financial stability and was attracting speculators.

　　今年4月份中国央行要求商业银行和支付机构关闭比特币账户，称该系统对金融稳定构成威胁，并吸引了投机者。

　　Shanghai-based financial analyst Zennon Kapron, founder of the market research firm Kapronasia, outlines the history of bitcoin's rise and fall in China in his new e-book, Chomping at the Bitcoin: The Past, Present and Future of Bitcoin in China, which will be released Aug. 25. He chatted with China Real Time about the reasons why bitcoin failed in China, his views on the currency's future, and the unusual nature of his first name. Edited excerpts:

　　驻上海的金融分析师、市场研究机构Kapronasia创始人卡普伦(Zennon Kapron)在他的新书中概述了比特币在中国的兴衰历史。这本书名为《细谈比特币:比特币在中国的过去、现在和未来》(Chomping at the Bitcoin: The Past, Present and Future of Bitcoin in China)，是一本电子书，将于8月25日发行。他与“中国实时报”栏目聊了比特币在中国失败的原因、他对比特币未来的看法以及他不同寻常的名字。以下为经过编辑的采访内容摘录:

　　Why did you write this book

　　你为什么会写这本书

　　I started following bitcoin in June 2013. Back in Shanghai I noticed that there was a lot of talk about what was happening, but it wasn't from objective third parties. There was a lot of talk coming from participants or from external sources not in China.

　　我从2013年6月份开始关注比特币。在上海我注意到关于当时正在发生的事情有很多的谈论，但不是来自中立的第三方。有很多的讨论来自参与者以及海外人士。

　　What would you say surprised you most in researching the book

　　在写作这本书时，什么事情最让你吃惊

　　For industry participants, their belief in bitcoin is undaunted in the face of strong regulation. Even as recently as a couple of weeks ago, [bitcoin exchange company BTC China chief executive] Bobby Lee was still very bullish. Those kinds of commentaries tend to be wide-eyed and bushy-tailed about what is happening. But then you have a lot of observers globally and in China who are very negative.

　　行业参与者对比特币的信念并没有因为严厉的监管而被吓倒。甚至在几周之前，比特币交易所公司比特币中国(BTC)的首席执行长李启元(Bobby Lee)仍很看好比特币。这些评论通常是既清醒有警觉。但另一方面，很多中国和全球的观察人士对比特币的看法非常消极。

　　So are you bullish on bitcoin

　　那你看好比特币吗

　　That's the most difficult question: what is the value of bitcoin going to be I think it's too early to say. Although it's been in China five years as of January, it's still very early days. Things moved very quickly. I don't think we're at the end of the story. But if you look at the regulators, it's not very often that regulators modify their stance very quickly.

　　这是最难的问题。比特币的价值何在呢 目前得出结论还为时尚早。虽然到今年1月份比特币在中国已经发展了五年，但它仍处于相当初期的阶段。事情经常瞬息万变，我不认为比特币的故事已经结束。但如果你看看监管机构，他们通常不会很快改变立场。

　　What about its long-term future

　　比特币的长远未来会是怎样

　　China follows what happens in the rest of the world. For bitcoin to be a global currency, China needs to be part of that story. The concept of crypto currency is here to stay. I think the technology and the idea of what bitcoin is is quite interesting and can help a number of issues we have globally. Whether bitcoin is the one to have success is a bit unclear.

　　中国追随世界其他地方的潮流。比特币想要成为全球货币，就需要中国的参与。加密货币的概念将继续存在。我认为比特币涉及的技术和理念非常有意思，能够帮助解决许多全球性问题。比特币在这方面是否能获得成功还有些不确定。

　　What else did you learn in writing the book

　　你在写作这本书的过程中还学到了什么

　　One of the best things to come out of this discussion is that a lot of people are questioning the belief they have in monetary systems. For bitcoin, it's not necessarily the first mover that's the winner. We may see Amazon Coins or U.S. government coins ending up being more successful. Bitcoin is the first one to gain mainstream awareness.

　　有关比特币的讨论带来的一大好处是许多人开始质疑他们对货币系统的信仰。对于比特币而言，先行者并不见得就能成为赢家。亚马逊(Amazon)虚拟货币或美国政府推出的虚拟货币有可能更为成功。比特币是第一种获得主流认可的虚拟货币。

　　Why did bitcoin fail in China

　　比特币为什么会在中国受挫

　　Bitcoin in China was essentially a victim of its own success. What we saw was that awareness grew after the May 2013 CCTV documentary. From there until around the end of September, it started leading the world in terms of price and there was indication that speculation in China was driving it. That really got the attention of the regulators. It started to get more momentum, so both from the speculation perspective and the financial industry perspective, the government had little choice but to regulate it.

　　在中国，比特币基本上来说是其本身所取得的成功的牺牲品。2013年5月份CCTV播出了那部纪录片后，人们对比特币的了解越来越多。从那时到9月底前后，中国的比特币价格开始领先于世界上其他地方，有迹象显示中国的投机行为是价格上涨的推手。由此引发了监管机构的关注。价格上涨开始获得更多动能，因此从投机和金融业两个角度来说，政府除了加强监管没有多少其他选择。

　　Can you explain what bitcoin mining is

　　能解释一下什么是“挖矿”吗

　　It's one of the more difficult aspects of bitcoin. Because the currency is decentralized, there needs to be a way to track and verify transactions. Mining is the network's way of encouraging [such verification], because you can receive rewards for doing so.

　　这是比特币难以解释的一点。比特币没有中央控制，因此需要有一个能够追踪并验证交易的方式。“挖矿”是比特币网络鼓励验证交易的一种方式，因为这样做可以获得奖励。

　　In your book, you profile a few people in China who have tried mining bitcoins. How do you think bitcoin mining here will evolve

　　在书中描述了中国一些尝试过“挖矿”的人，那么 认为“挖矿”会在中国如何演化

　　I see mining moving from something an individual person can get involved in, to something being done by much larger mining organizations. At this point it's likely not profitable for people to get into mining. You may be paying $2,000 for a piece of equipment [that processes bitcoin transactions] and by the time you get it, it's only worth $500 because the equipment reaches obsolescence.

　　我认为“挖矿”将从一种个人参与的行为变成一种规模更大的“挖矿”组织的行为。目前人们“挖矿”可能获得不了多少收益， 可能需要花2,000美元购买一部(处理比特币交易的)设备，但当设备到手后可能只值500美元，因为设备会老化。

　　Do you think we'll ever see a time when bitcoins are given in the place of hongbao during the new year

　　认为未来人们过年时会不会以赠送比特来来代替红包

　　That could very well be. WeChat set up virtual hongbao in the Chinese new year, and Chinese are very open to using these online tools.

　　很有可能。微信(WeChat)推出了春节虚拟红包，而且中国人对于使用这些网上工具的态度非常开放。

　　How did you come to have such an unusual first name

　　你的名字挺不寻常的，有什么来历吗

　　It's pronounced like John Lennon. I was named after one of the authors of the Encyclopedia Britannica [Zenon Przesmycki], but his named was spelled Zenon with one 'n.' Because of John Lennon, my parents added an extra 'n.'

　　发音和约翰•列侬(John Lennon)一样。我父母根据《大英百科全书》(Encyclopedia Britannica)作者之一Zenon Przesmycki的名字给我起了这个名字，但他的名字里只有一个n，因为列侬的关系，父母又给我的名字里添了一个n。

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