【12.16国外百咖说：顺便学英语】比特币的波动性可能会飙升

If you’ve been involved in the cryptocurrency community for any time at all, you likely have heard the word “whale” mentioned time and time again. For those not in the loop, a so-called whale is a digital asset holder that controls a large portion (relatively speaking) of a cryptocurrency’s supply.

如果您有一段时间一直参与加密货币社区，那么您可能会一次又一次听到“鲸鱼”一词。对于那些不在循环中的人来说，所谓的鲸鱼是一种数字资产持有人，它控制着（相对而言）加密货币供应的很大一部分。

While whales are largely mysterious creatures, with few knowing who actually is controlling a majority of, say, Bitcoin, analysts fear that these investors may make this market much more volatile in the near future.

虽然鲸鱼在很大程度上是神秘生物，但很少有人知道谁实际上控制着比特币的大部分，但分析师担心，这些投资者可能会在不久的将来使这个市场更加动荡。

Bitcoin Volatility to Increase, Researchers Warn

研究人员警告说，比特币的波动性将增加

Bitcoin has long been a volatile asset. Since its birth some 11 years ago, the cryptocurrency has been subject to the most dramatic of market cycles, surging by thousands of percent to only crash by 90% in the months later, time again and time again.

比特币长期以来一直是不稳定的资产。自大约11年前诞生以来，这种加密货币一直受到市场周期最剧烈的冲击，飙升了数千％，几个月后又一次暴跌90％。

Though over the past year, volatility has calmed, at least relatively speaking. The cryptocurrency is up a ‘mere’ 90% since the year began, a far cry from the 2,000% gains seen in 2017 or the 85% of crushing defeat seen in the 2018 drawback.

尽管在过去的一年中，动荡已经平静下来，至少相对而言。自年初以来，该加密货币仅上涨了90％，与2017年的2,000％的收益或2018年的劣势的85％的惨败相距甚远。

But data implies that volatility has the potential to reappear in this market. Bloombergrecently reportedthat per analytics firm Coin Metrics, investors holding 1,000 to one million BTC “hold 42.1% of all Bitcoin supply, up from 37.9% during the height of the speculative bubble two years ago.”

但是数据表明，波动性有可能在这个市场再次出现。彭博社最近报道称，根据分析公司Coin Metrics，持有1,000至100万比特币的投资者“持有全部比特币供应的42.1％，高于两年前投机泡沫最严重时期的37.9％。”

This has been corroborated by Flipside Crypto, another industry research boutique that found recently that a mere 3.5% of all BTC addresses are actively trading their Bitcoin “on any given week.”

另一家行业研究公司Flipside Crypto证实了这一点，该公司最近发现，只有3.5％的BTC地址“在任何一周内”都在积极交易其比特币。

As to why this is important, John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas at Austin that suggested that Bitcoin’srally to $20,000 was the byproduct of one entity, said:

关于这为什么如此重要，德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的金融学教授约翰·格里芬（John Griffin）表示，比特币涨至2万美元是一个实体的副产品，他说

Su Zhu, the founder of forex and crypto fund Three Arrows Capital, corroborated this expectation of impending volatility. He said to Luke Martin, a CNN-featured cryptocurrency analyst and podcaster, in a recent iteration of the “Coinist Podcast” that he expects for Bitcoin volatility to increase with time, not decrease.

外汇和加密货币基金Three Arrows Capital的创始人Su Zhu证实了这种即将来临的波动的预期。在最近的“ Coinist Podcast”迭代中，他对CNN特色的加密货币分析师和播客Luke Martin说，他预计比特币的波动性会随着时间增加而不是减少。

He specifically cited Bitcoin’s elastic demand and the inelastic (fixed) supply cap of 21 million, coupled with the idea that the mentality of traders is to not cash out their coins anymore, but rather to “HODL.” These two trends strongly lend to increasing volatility with time, not otherwise.

他特别提到了比特币的弹性需求和2100万的弹性（固定）供应上限，并提出了这样的想法，交易者的心态是不再兑现他们的代币，而是兑现“ HODL”。这两个趋势强烈地促进了交易的增加。随时间波动，并非如此。

So fasten your seatbelts, Bitcoin may be about to encounter a fresh patch of volatility, at long as the “HODL” mindset remains popular.

因此，只要系好安全带，只要“ HODL”心态仍然流行，比特币就可能会遇到新的动荡。

Hold the Phone: Bloomberg Analyst Expects Otherwise

保持电话：彭博分析师预计会不同

While Bloomberg is reporting on a potential increase in volatility, an analyst at the firm’s analysis outfit, Bloomberg Intelligence, begs to differ.

彭博社报道波动率可能会上升，但该公司分析机构彭博资讯的一位分析师则表示不同。

Commodities strategist at Bloomberg, Mike McGlone, wrote in a recent note that he expects for Bitcoin’s volatility to increase in 2020, “with the transition from a bear to a bull market apparently over.”

彭博社的商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）在最近的一份报告中写道，他预计比特币的波动性将在2020年增加，“从熊市到牛市的过渡显然已经结束。”

Per commodities news outletKitco, which reported on McGlone’s comments, McGlone believes that the introduction and adoption of Bitcoin futures, options, and other derivatives will keep prices caged, likely between $6,000 and $12,000, for the foreseeable future.

根据大宗商品新闻媒体Kitco的报道，McGlone相信，在可预见的未来，引入和采用比特币期货，期权和其他衍生品将使价格保持稳定，可能在6,000美元至12,000美元之间。

Coin Centralization Just Starting

硬币集中化才刚刚开始

The analysis that a few large traders are controlling the market points to a larger problem: Bitcoin is being centralized in the hands of a few players, namely exchanges. In fact, a report from BitUniverse recently found that nearly 2 million BTC is being held in the wallets of the top exchanges, implying mass centralization of power and wealth.

几个大型交易者控制着市场的分析指出了一个更大的问题：比特币正集中在少数参与者手中，即交易所。实际上，BitUniverse最近的一份报告发现，在顶级交易所的钱包中持有将近200万枚BTC，这意味着权力和财富的大规模集中化。

What’s unfortunately ironic about all of this is that Bitcoin was created to allow people to decentralize themselves from banks and other institutions. Instead, as depicted above, Bitcoin is seemingly being given to centralized companies who now control vast swaths of cryptocurrency wealth.

不幸的是，所有这些都具有讽刺意味的是，比特币的创建是为了让人们能够将自己从银行和其他机构中分散出去。取而代之的是，如上所述，似乎将比特币分配给了中央公司，这些公司现在控制着大量的加密货币财富。

Sure, there remain millions of BTC held in self-sovereign wallets, though this trend is harrowing, at least to diehard decentralists.

当然，尽管这种趋势令人痛苦，至少对于顽固的权力下放者而言，仍然存在着数百万个处于自主权钱包中的BTC。

原文链接：https://blockonomi.com/bitcoin-volatility-whale-wallets/

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编译者/作者：zachzorro

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