元宇宙是大风吹还是未来？

元宇宙不能用某个位置或某种技术来定义。它是一个观点，能让我们的数字生活比物理生活更有价值。

我们以为元宇宙还需要几年的时间，但事实是，自1997年美国在线(AOL) messenger问世以来，我们已经逐步走向它，我们在设备上花费越来越多的时间，并更加重视数字身份。我们已经向数字化生活过渡，从办公室到家中，从运动到视频游戏，从朋友到追随者。对于年轻一代来说，我们在社交媒体上的形象可能会比我们在现实生活中更重要。我们的友谊、工作和身份越来越数字化，随着加密货币和非加密货币的出现，资产与收藏品也越来越数字化。

这一切都说得通——如果我们花越来越多的时间上网，那么仅仅只有一盎司黄金、一块劳力士或一件精美的艺术品在我们的现实生活中就变得不是非常合理。

人们普遍认为，建立在区块链技术上，Web 3.0去中心化P2P网络的发展，彻底改变互联网的功能，然而，Metaverse代表的是我们与互联网互动方式的改变。元宇宙将是一个整体的、无所不包的数字生活方式——我们目前在生活中所能做的大部分事情，在元宇宙中将会更容易/更有效。

对大多数人来说，数字式的生活体验有些陌生——所以今天我们将讨论Metaverse的概念，它将是什么样子的，以及会受益哪些公司/社区。

The Metaverse can’t be defined by a location or a form of technology.The Metaverse is a point in time where our digital life is worth more to us than our physical lives.

We may think that the Metaverse is years away, but the reality is that we have been gradually moving towards it since the advent of AOL messenger in 1997, spending more and more time on our devices, and placing greater weight on our digital identity.We have transitioned towards more digital lives, going from our office to our homes, sports to video games and friends to followers.For some in the younger generations, how we look on social media often means more than how we actually look in real life.Our friendships, jobs and identities have become increasingly digital, and with the advent of cryptocurrencies and NFT’s – so have our assets and collectibles.

This all makes sense – if we spend more and more time online, then having an ounce of physical gold, a Rolex or a nice piece of art becomes increasingly less justifiable for our lifestyles.

It has been widely established that Web 3.0 will revolutionise how the internet functions, through the development of decentralised, P2P networks built on blockchain technology, however, what the Metaverse represents is an alteration in the way in which we interact with the internet.The Metaverse will be a holistic and all-encompassing digital means of living life – where most of what we can currently do in our lives, will be easier/more efficient in the Metaverse.

The idea of a life defined primarily by digital experience is one which is foreign to most - so today we will go over the concept of a Metaverse, what it will look like, and the companies/communities which are set to benefit.

元宇宙到底是什么?

如果你问史蒂夫?乔布斯(Steve Jobs)，当他首次推出iPhone时，智能手机会是什么样子，你得到的答案很可能会远远低于实际结果。在它的发展过程中，一直在不断演变，几乎影响了我们生活的每一个元素——成为我们最重要的财产之一，并改变了我们交流、工作、交易和休闲方式。

同样，我们也很难缩小Metaverse的范围，但我们能做的是定义可能有的属性。

元宇宙一直在继续发展，从未重置、暂停或结束。将是每个人都能获得的生活体验，为每个用户提供一个个人的、容易识别的身份——就像现实生活一样。它将拥有一个全面运转的经济——将有机会因提供“有价值”的“工作”而获得回报。跨越数字和物理世界，并提供跨元宇宙中所有体验的数据互操作性。

Metaverse不只是一个“虚拟世界”，在现实生活中，游戏和娱乐只是元宇宙的一部分，不能简化解释为虚拟空间/游戏。虚拟现实(VR)头盔并不能定义元宇宙，而只是反映了一种体验它的方式。

为什么元宇宙如此重要?

从投资的角度看，元宇宙可能会获得数万亿的资本流动——即使它没有达到部分人的宏伟预期。如果我们想看到比较大规模的资本配置例子,只需要想想互联网的出现,以及它对不同公司的命运影响——目前大多数世界上最大的公司正在与网络有关。

如果元宇宙会成为互联网的下一个迭代，尽管增加了屏幕时间和元宇宙里商业活动的机会，但仍会出现明显的机会。那些做对了并且主导领域的人将会得到丰厚的回报，甚至可能成为“下一个亚马逊”。在人类层面上，元宇宙也象征着人类互动的下一个前沿——在那里，社会和职业互动的可能性会戏剧性地扩大。

在过去一年半的时间里，由于COVID-19大流行的必要性，家庭办公(WFH)的趋势在社会上迅速发展。起初，此举是出于必要，但现在，许多员工开始喜欢WFH，并将WFH的住宿作为他们求职的关键因素之一，并减少了商务旅行的需求。因此，很明显已经看到了曙光，并通过了一个不可回头的点，在那里可以继续过渡到更加数字化的生活，人们可能更喜欢数字交流而不是面对面的互动。

Metaverse提供增强的通信媒介模糊虚拟世界和现实之间的界限,与微软的“网”平台已经实现全息图(我们可以看到一个场景类似于绝地委员会)通过其混合现实应用程序(它将现实世界与虚拟现实和AR)。

来源:《星球大战》

随着专业沟通质量的提高，元宇宙将改变我们社交和消费娱乐的方式。

举个现场表演的例子，无论是音乐会、戏剧还是体育赛事，这种做法的第一次迭代已经出现在电子游戏中，我们在《Roblox》和《堡垒之夜》中看到了Travis Scott、Lil Nas X和Twenty One Pilots等人的现场音乐会。

这一趋势可能会持续下去，你可能会看到你最喜欢的乐队在一个栩栩如生的视频体验中演奏，或者与朋友一起观看现场体育比赛，就像你在观看比赛一样。

虽然在现实生活中很难复制人群的氛围，但它可以让你在世界各地的人的陪伴下体验这些事件(不用担心他们与你的物理距离)。

然而，必须指出的是，Metaverse是一个更广泛的概念，其中这些交流和娱乐元素只占其价值主张的一小部分。这听起来很棒，但我们需要多久才能拥有所需的技术?

What exactly is the Metaverse?

If you asked Steve Jobs what the smartphone would be when he first launched the iPhone, the answer you would have received likely would’ve fallen short of what has actually eventuated.Over the course of its development, it has continued to evolve and has impacted almost every element of our lives – being one of our most important possessions, and changing how we communicate, work, transact and relax.

In the same vein, it’s difficult to narrow down what the Metaverse will actually be, but what we can do is define its likely attributes.

The Metaverse continues indefinitely, not ever resetting, pausing, or ending.It will be a living experience available to everyone, providing each user with an individual, and easily distinguishable identity – much like real life.It will have a fully functioning economy – where there will be an opportunity to be rewarded for “work” that provides “value”.

It will span both digital and physical worlds and offer interoperability of data across all experiences in the Metaverse.

The Metaverse is not simply just a “virtual world”, nor can its purpose be simplified into a virtual space/game.A Virtual Reality (VR) headset does not define the Metaverse, but simply reflects a way to experience it.As in real life, games and entertainment only form a portion of the Metaverse.

Why does the Metaverse matter?

From an investment perspective, the Metaverse will likely receive trillions in capital flows – even if it falls short of the grandiose expectations which some have.If we want to see an example of the scale of capital allocation, we only have to look back at the advent of the internet, and the impact it has had on the fortunes of various companies - where most of the largest companies in the world are currently related to the internet.

If the Metaverse is to be the next iteration of the internet, there will be obvious opportunities which arise as a result, notwithstanding the increased screen time and enhanced opportunities for commercial activities within the Metaverse.Those who get it right and dominate the space will be richly rewarded and may even be “the next Amazon”.On a human level, the Metaverse also symbolises the next frontier of human interaction – where the possibilities of social and professional interactions have expanded dramatically.

The move towards more digital interactions has already begun, where the past year and a half has seen Work From Home (WFH) trends within society fast-tracked by the necessity of the COVID-19 pandemic.Initially, the move was borne out of necessity, but it has now transpired into a situation where many employees have now begun to prefer WFH, and place WFH accommodations as one of their key factors within their job search, as well as reducing demand for corporate travel.As a result, it is clear that we have seen the light and passed a point of no return, where we will continue to transition towards a more digital life, with a preference for digital communication over face to face interactions.

The Metaverse offers enhanced communication mediums which will blur the lines between the virtual world and reality, with Microsoft’s “Mesh” platform already implementing holograms (where we could see a scene similar to that of the Jedi council) through its Mixed Reality applications (which combine the real world with VR and AR).

Along with enhancing the quality of professional communication, the Metaverse will transform the ways in which we socialise and consume entertainment.

One example of this will be live shows – whether they be music concerts, plays, or sporting events.The first iterations of this have already occurred within video games, where we have seen live concerts in Roblox and Fortnite from the likes of Travis Scott, Lil Nas X and Twenty One Pilots.

This trend could be set to continue, where you may be able to see your favourite band play in a life-like video experience, or similarly watch a live sports game with your friends by your side, as if you were at the game itself.

Whilst it is difficult to replicate the atmosphere of a crowd in real life, it enables you to experience these events in the company of anyone around the world (irrespective of their physical distance to you).

However, it must be noted that the Metaverse is a much broader concept, where these factors of communication and entertainment only make up a small proportion of its value proposition.This all sounds great, but how long until we have the required technology?

我们如何创建元宇宙?

形成元宇宙可能还需要几十年的时间，需要在不同领域进行一系列的开发。

硬件和计算能力必须提高，创建和操作虚拟现实和增强现实环境的头盔和硬件必须变得更加高效和可扩展。

改善互联网连接，不同用户之间的互动规模很大。

开发操作复杂的虚拟平台，用户在里面能够参与各种各样的体验。现实世界里的很多活动用元宇宙都能实现——比如开车，在海滩上散步，或听现场音乐。

建立数字支付轨道，在那里加密货币或央行发行的digital currencies和区块链技术可以被实施，无缝地充当互联网货币。

最后，必须改变用户行为——让个人和团体参与到元宇宙中。

元宇宙会是一件好事吗?

目前为止，虽然我们一直在关注元宇宙所能增加的价值，但如果它被放置在错误的人手中，它可能会遵循一个黑暗的方向。目前我们有三种关键产品可以用来访问未来的元宇宙，它们是:

虚拟现实(VR)，即完全沉浸在另一种现实中

增强现实(AR)，即数字信息叠加在真实世界上的技术

混合现实(MR)，真实世界和交替现实发生碰撞的地方

以这三种来说，数据传输深度将会更大，目前的许多原型产品(尤其是MR)都有面部、眼睛、身体和手的跟踪技术，以确保无缝的用户体验。并且，关于你说了什么，看了什么，做了什么，这些数据会很容易得到。

这种深度数据实际上不应该委托给一家公司，尤其是像Facebook这种有利用用户数据进行操纵行为历史的公司。

How do we create the Metaverse?

The Metaverse in its final form is likely to be decades away and will require a series of developments in different fields.

Hardware and computing power will have to improve, where VR headsets and hardware to create and operate VR and AR environments will have to become more efficient and scalable.

Internet connectivity will have to improve, given the high bandwidth which will be required and the unprecedented scale of interaction between various users on the internet.

We will have to develop and operate complex virtual platforms, where users are able to engage in a variety of experiences that they would have access to in the real world – like driving a car, walking on a beach, or listening to live music.

Digital payment rails will have to be established, where cryptocurrencies or central bank-issued digital currencies and blockchain technologies can be implemented to seamlessly act as the currency of the internet.

Finally, we will have to transform user behaviour – to get individuals and groups engaged and educated on the Metaverse.

Will the Metaverse be a good thing?

Whilst we have focused on the value which the Metaverse can add so far in this note – there is a dark direction which it can follow if placed in the wrong hands.There are currently three key vehicles which we could use to access the Metaverse in the future, which would be:

Virtual Reality (VR), which involves full immersion into an alternate reality

Augmented Reality (AR), where digital information is superimposed over the real world

Mixed Reality (MR), where the real world and alternate realities collide.

For all three vehicles, there would be a greater depth of data transmitted, where many current prototypes (particularly within MR), have face, eye, body and hand tracking technology to ensure a seamless user experience.Data would subsequently be readily available regarding what you say, what you look at, and what you do.

This depth of data is something which realistically should not be entrusted to one company – and especially not to one like Facebook who have a history of utilising user data for manipulative practices.

谁会从元宇宙中获益?

元宇宙是一个相对较新的概念，在我们能够得到可扩展的产品之前，需先开发大量技术。然而，部分玩家已经在此领域处于领先地位:

微软

微软一直在开发“Mesh”，它将作为一个虚拟会议平台，由混合现实(AR和VR的结合)驱动。他们的目标是创造一个具有真实社交互动的工作环境，同时通过使用AR技术超越物理的可能性。并凭借其办公套件，微软可能会继续在该领域投入巨资，并成为Metaverse开发的领导者之一。

来源:微软

Facebook（现改名为Meta）

马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)最近引起元宇宙领域的最大关注，他宣布将把Facebook的名字改为Meta——这标志着该公司重新关注Metaverse。多年来，扎克伯格一直沉迷于虚拟现实领域，并通过收购Oculus(虚拟现实眼镜)、Within(虚拟现实健身应用)和各种虚拟现实游戏开发商来扩大自己的投资组合。

英伟达

英伟达Omniverse是一个可扩展的，多gpu实时开发平台，帮助用户构建3D模拟和协作开发。从本质上说，可能是开发元宇宙所需的硬件驱动。《全能宇宙》的一部分是《阿凡达》，它将拥有能够对语言和面部暗示做出反应的互动角色，以及与人就气候变化和天文学等多个话题进行对话的能力。

Roblox

Roblox是领先的用户生成内容(UGC)游戏平台，并已成为历史上增长最快的娱乐平台之一，在过去一个季度拥有4730万日均用户(《Roblox Earnings 2021年11月》)。Roblox与其他游戏公司的不同之处在于，它提供了一种社交体验——用户登录游戏与朋友聊天，而不是在现实生活中与朋友见面。

不是一件简单的事

摆在开发人员面前的任务是巨大的，但也应该是这样。这将需要几十年的开发，直到我们能够实现最终的终端产品，在那里我们可以体验超越现实的数字生活。

我可以肯定的是，这种数字化转变是不可避免的，在过去20年里也一直在进行转变。随着我们的技术和生活方式的发展，元宇宙将会随着时间而改变。

正如我们看到的，随着互联网的发展，资本很可能向该行业大举转移，最优秀和最聪明的人将获得丰厚回报，为投资者提供充足的受益机会。

Who stands to benefit from the Metaverse?

The Metaverse is a relatively nascent concept, with much technological development required before we can get to a scalable end product.However, there are a few players who are already leading in the space:

Microsoft – (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Microsoft has been developing “Mesh” – an extension of Teams which will act as a virtual meeting platform, powered by Mixed Reality (a combination of AR and VR).The goal is to create a working environment which has life-like social interactions, whilst going beyond the possibilities of the physical through utilising AR technology.With its suite of office products, Microsoft will likely continue to invest heavily into the space and be one of the leaders in developing the Metaverse.

Meta (formally known as Facebook) – (NASDAQ: FB)

Mark Zuckerberg has brought the most attention to the space in recent times, following his announcement that he would change Facebook’s name to Meta – a symbol of the company's renewed focus on the Metaverse.Zuckerberg has been obsessed with the space for years and has been building out his portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including Oculus (VR goggles), Within (VR fitness app), and various VR game-makers.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)

Nvidia Omniverse is a scalable, multi-GPU real-time development platform which helps users build 3D simulations and collaborate on development.

Essentially – it is the hardware which is likely to power the Metaverse.

One portion of the Omniverse is “Avatar”, which will have interactive characters which respond to speech and facial cues, as well as the ability to maintain conversation with people on multiple topics like climate change and astronomy.

Roblox (NYSE: RBLX)

Roblox is the leading User Generated Content (UGC) gaming platform and has become one of the fastest-growing entertainment platforms in history – boasting 47.3 million daily average users over the past quarter (Roblox Earnings November 2021).

What sets Roblox apart from other companies within the gaming industry is that it delivers a social experience – where users log on to chat to friends, as opposed to meeting up with them in real life.

No easy feat

The task ahead of developers is immense – but so it should be for a task of such importance.It will take decades of development until we can reach a final end-product, where we can live a digital life which surpasses reality.

However, what we know for sure is that the transition is inevitable and has been in motion for the past 20 years.What the Metaverse becomes will change over time, as our technology and lifestyles evolve.

As we saw with the development of the internet, there will likely be a significant transfer of capital towards the sector, where the best and brightest will be rewarded richly – offering ample opportunities for investors to benefit.

作者：Mike Young

译者&编辑：mayteng

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编译者/作者：元宇宙TM

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