ByteTree比特币网络需求模型：目前仍然看跌

The Bitcoin Network Demand Model remains on a 2/6, with the price of bitcoin falling by 8% since we indicated the network had turned bearish last week.

比特币网络需求模型仍处于2/6（如下图黑色指针处）。在我们上周表示比特币网络看跌之后，

比特币价格随后下跌了8%。

On-chain transaction value (TV$), shown in blue below, has continued to fall sharply and settled less than $5Bn per day over the week. This marks a further 17% fall from last week and will likely drive the long-term TV $ indicator to “OFF” within the next week.

链上交易价值（TV$）继续大幅下跌，本周每日结算量均低于50亿美元。这标志着它比上周进一步下降了17%，并可能会推动长期TV$指标在下周内转变成“OFF”。

A significant driver of falling TV$ is the lower institutional participation rate, measured on the Terminal through our Institutional Dominance Ratio (IDR). IDR has steadily fallen since mid-May, accompanied by outflows of 8k BTC from institutional-facing investment vehicles, as measured through our?fund-flows data.

TV$下降的一个重要驱动因素是更低的机构参与率，这是通过我们的机构主导率(IDR)在终端上测量的。自5月中旬以来，IDR一直在稳步下降，伴随着通过面向机构的投资工具流出的8000个BTC。

Fees (USD) have continued to fall and remain “OFF” on the short-term time frame. The longer-term trend remains “ON”; however, the rate of change is negative and accelerating. Fees (USD) in absolute terms have returned to Jan’21 levels.

费用（美元）继续下降，并在短期内保持“OFF”。长期趋势仍然“ON”，但变化速度呈负值且正在加速。绝对费用（美元）已回到1月21日的水平。

Today’s news about El Salvador’s Congress?recognising bitcoin as legal tender?is undoubtedly positive for the long-term outlook of the Bitcoin Network. However, the BYTE model does not seek to comment on the long-term feasibility or success of the network, instead focusing on the current level of activity taking place.

While we are optimistic that El Salvador and its citizens’ use of Bitcoin will boost overall network demand, we wait for confirmation from the chain. On-chain data cuts through expectations of future value, as well as the hyperbole of “to the moon” and “laser eyes to 100k”, to focus on the utility here and now.

今天关于萨尔瓦多国会承认比特币为法定货币的消息，无疑对比特币网络的长期前景是积极的。然而，BYTE模型并不追求评论BTC网络的长期可行性或成功，而是寻求关注当前正在发生的活动的水平。

虽然我们对萨尔瓦多及其公民使用比特币将促进整体网络需求持乐观态度，但我们正在等待链上数据的确认。链上数据，理性削减了对未来价值的预期，以及“to the moon”和“laser eyes to 100k”的夸张，而专注于目前的效用。

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编译者/作者：Crypto查尔斯

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