区块链大型巡回播放【第103期】#去金融中介（上）# &“行情解读”

1、去金融中介（上）

从长期角度出发，去中介相对于去中心更容易去实现，虽然短期内会出现形形色色的伪中介，导致去中介有点难度，但是最终来看，金融的演进逻辑核心是利益、效率和安全，这三个方面又称，三角制约，如何在这三个真正的去金融中介能否实现？以去中介代表P2P贷款为例，目前在国外，银行和对冲基金正在进入P2P领域，通过证券化把P2P贷款进行包装成为新的金融工具，同时通过这些平台进行贷款业务，这里存在监管套现的动机，有些银行高管直言，P2P可以做银行不好意思做的事情。

个人借款投资者发挥作用逐渐变弱，对冲基金和银行等大型的机构才是游戏的主角，实际上例如P2P典范lending club等业务模式距离P2P去中介化还有很长一段路要走。现在谈去金融中介还尚早。

In the long run, de-intermediation is easier to achieve than de-centralisation. Although in the short run there will be all kinds of pseudo-intermediation, which makes it a bit difficult to do so, in the end, the core logic of financial evolution is interest, efficiency and security. These three aspects are also called triangular constraints. How can these three real financial intermediaries be realized?

Taking the example of the P2P loan represented by the past intermediary, currently abroad, banks and hedge funds are entering the P2P field, packaging the P2P loan into a new financial tool through securitization, and at the same time carrying out the loan business through these platforms, there is a regulatory incentive to cash out, and some bank executives have said bluntly that P2P can do what banks are too shy to do. The role of individual borrowers is waning, big players such as hedge funds and banks are the main players, and indeed business models such as the P2P model lending club are a long way from being P2P disintermediated. It's too early to talk about financial intermediation.

2、行情解读

每日行情走势，大饼从3月12号开始爬升，初始点为3800点，今日11月08号14点41分14983美元左右（接近四倍的涨幅），正在反复11000-14000美元的测试，目前处于维稳阶段。从日曲线看13400-14900美元之间目前支撑点很多，庄家买入挂单持仓1.3万BTC（明面买盘较昨日基本持平），上方阻力2.8万BTC（明面阻力较昨日基本持平）。

持续8个月的走势，接下来到了变盘的时刻，再次测试11000-14000美元高位压力点，冲破稳定之后，目前已经局部冲突，大饼整体后期趋势回调上涨。

从15分钟曲线可以看出，比特币从15753美元跌落到14366美元一个相对点。合约不玩牛市必来，合约理论上放大游戏的上下限，大饼继续震荡起来目前回调处于14985美元，目前非主流昨日保持2-3%左右的跌幅，期待大饼稳住目前指标，相对指标USDT目前6.65（大饼需要稳定）。

3、小结

话外题：

昨天参加一个英语活动课，校长女儿用一口标准的英式英语熟练地朗读开幕词，很多家长问了成功的经验，每天练习三个小时，持续三个月，所以任何事情都需要打磨，交易也是这个样子，没有亏损过，很难明白交易的套路，投资很难，需要磨练。

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编译者/作者：醉玲珑

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