比特币5月累计跌幅37%，和峰值相比则跌去45%，表现创下了10年来最糟。过去一周监管层面相对平静，但政策尚未落地，监管压力和高能耗担忧仍然挥之不去。从最新基本面来看，流入交易数待抛的比特币增多，链上交易数再创新低，算力数据低位徘徊，USDT溢价率收窄，恐慌指数仍有18，这些都预示着比特币短线反弹过后或有新一轮探底走势。从宏观层面而言，美国更希望将加密货币市场纳入原有金融监管体系，堵住逃税、洗钱的口子，为下一轮经济刺激计划增加税源，从这个意义上，比特币长线依然无忧，当下适合躺平。以下是其他数据复盘——
交易所钱包比特币供应量
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目前各大主流交易所共储备152.97万枚比特币，供给抛压进一步变大。
链上交易数
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} 上周比特币链上交易数连续走低，最高22.9万，最低17.5万，重心也低于前周。这一数据自2018年2月以来一直缓慢增长，是比特币核心价值的体现，也是比特币市场价格的根本支撑。目前链上交易数暗示比特币反弹过后仍将探底。
算力数据
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} 上周比特币矿池算力低位震荡，最新报124.3Ehash/s。算力数据是比特币的核心基本面之一，去年以来一直保持着稳步向上的趋势，是比特币长线价值的另一基石。 灰度持仓量
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} 灰度信托(Grayscale Trust)昨日无减持，过去7日减持了250.63枚比特币，过去30日减持了1001.86枚比特币，目前锁仓65.26万枚比特币，GBTC持续负溢价率，最新为-12.76%，折价率收窄但持续疲软。
USDT溢价率
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} USDT溢价率最新报0.16%，溢价率有所收窄，新增入场资金量衰减。
恐惧&贪婪指数
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} 恐惧&贪婪指数目前最新为18，市场仍未摆脱极度恐惧情绪。该指数原是一个证券市场指标，又称VIX，由波动性、市场交易量、社交媒体热度、谷歌热词分析等因子组成，阈值为0-100，数值越低表示越恐慌，数值越高表示越贪婪，可用于预警市场潜在风险和仓位增减的参考，即极度恐惧时可能存在买入机会，过度贪婪时意味着市场将出现调整。
搜索指数
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mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;} 从谷歌过去30天的相关搜索指数来看，比特币新增关注度持续降温。
以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。文章发布时比特币价格为36800美元。
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编译者/作者：SwapAll_io
玩币族申明：玩币族作为开放的资讯翻译/分享平台，所提供的所有资讯仅代表作者个人观点，与玩币族平台立场无关，且不构成任何投资理财建议。文章版权归原作者所有。
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